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Major military conflict in Syria involving foreign powers by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies or official military announcements
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French and German Foreign Ministers Visit Damascus to Meet New Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa
Jan 3, 2025, 06:06 AM
Four weeks after the fall of Assad, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock have arrived in Damascus for talks with Syria's new leadership. The diplomats are expected to meet with Ahmad al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of the newly formed Syrian government. Baerbock stated that their visit is a signal from the European Union on the possibility of beginning a new political relationship with Syria. This marks the first visit by senior Western officials to Syria in several years.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased involvement • 25%
No change in involvement • 25%
Mediation role • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
United States • 25%
Turkey • 25%
Iran • 25%
Russia • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Government retains power • 25%
Complete Rebel Victory • 25%
Partial Rebel Control • 25%
Government Regains Control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Significant gains by opposition • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Government regains full control • 25%
Other • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Ongoing civil conflict • 25%
New government established • 25%
Opposition victory • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Increased involvement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased involvement • 25%
