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Market
In which year will OpenAI reach $100 billion in profits from AI systems?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
2029 • 25%
2030 • 25%
2031 • 25%
2032 or later • 25%
Official financial reports from OpenAI
Story
Microsoft and OpenAI Set AGI at $100 Billion Profit in 2023 Agreement, OpenAI Aims for 2029
Dec 26, 2024, 07:20 PM
Microsoft and OpenAI have agreed on a unique financial definition of artificial general intelligence (AGI) in a 2023 agreement, setting a benchmark of $100 billion in profits generated by OpenAI's AI systems, according to a report by The Information. This definition, which diverges from traditional technical and philosophical understandings of AGI, stipulates that Microsoft will lose access to OpenAI's technology once this profit threshold is met. OpenAI has informed investors that it does not expect to reach this milestone until 2029 or later, indicating that Microsoft's access to OpenAI's models could extend for a decade or more. This financial definition of AGI is seen as a strategic move, potentially influencing the future dynamics between the two companies as they navigate their partnership and the broader AI landscape.
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