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Market
Impact on PIJ's capabilities post-Abu-Daqa elimination by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant reduction in rocket attacks • 25%
Temporary disruption, then return to normal • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Increase in attacks • 25%
Analysis and reports from intelligence agencies and military experts
Story
IDF and Shin Bet Eliminate Senior PIJ Commander in Gaza Airstrike on Wednesday
Nov 22, 2024, 08:08 AM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) and Shin Bet have announced the elimination of Khaled Abu-Daqa, a senior commander in the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) terror group. Abu-Daqa, who commanded the PIJ's rocket unit, was killed in a targeted airstrike by an air force aircraft in Deir al-Balah, Gaza on Wednesday. The operation was conducted with precise intelligence guidance from the IDF, Shin Bet, and the Southern Command. Abu-Daqa was responsible for numerous attacks on Israel and was considered a significant threat.
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Rocket attacks on Israel • 25%
Increased recruitment and propaganda • 25%
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No significant action • 25%
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New leaders appointed • 25%
Existing leaders take on additional roles • 25%
Dissolution of some PFLP units • 25%
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Significant reduction • 25%
Moderate reduction • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase in capabilities • 25%
Significant disruption • 25%
Moderate disruption • 25%
Minor disruption • 25%
No disruption • 25%
Significantly weakened • 25%
Moderately weakened • 25%
Slightly weakened • 25%
Not weakened • 25%