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Market
Will there be a change in leadership within Hamas or PIJ by December 31, 2024?
5
Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Hamas•Palestinian Islamic Jihad•PIJ•Gaza•Israeli Air Force•IAF•Gaza City•Gaza Strip•UNRWA•Israel Security Agency•ISA
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas • 33%
PIJ • 33%
Neither • 34%
Announcements from Hamas or PIJ
Story
IDF Strikes Hamas and PIJ Targets in Gaza, Including Former UNRWA Sites on Sunday
Jun 23, 2024, 04:04 PM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) carried out multiple airstrikes targeting Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) infrastructure in Gaza. The strikes, conducted by Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets and drones, focused on sites in Gaza City and other areas within the Gaza Strip. Among the targets were buildings that previously served as headquarters for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). The IDF reported that these buildings were being used by terrorists for operations. The airstrikes, which took place on Sunday morning, were guided by intelligence from the IDF and the Israel Security Agency (ISA) and included aerial surveillance.
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Similar markets
Hamas • 33%
Islamic Jihad • 33%
Both • 33%
Neither • 33%
New Hamas leader • 25%
New Hezbollah leader • 25%
No change in Hamas leadership • 25%
No change in Hezbollah leadership • 25%
Yes • 25%
No • 25%
Leadership Reshuffle • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Mohammed Deif replaced • 25%
Rafa’a Salameh replaced • 25%
Both replaced • 25%
Neither replaced • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Other • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New leader emerges • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Leadership disbands • 25%
Hamas Leadership Change • 25%
Islamic Jihad Leadership Change • 25%
No Leadership Change • 25%
Other Faction Leadership Change • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership council restructured • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
New leader for Hamas • 25%
New leader for Hezbollah • 25%
New leaders for both • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Ismail Haniyeh remains leader • 25%
New leader from within Hamas • 25%
External leader takes control • 25%
No clear leadership • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Policy change • 25%
Both leadership and policy change • 25%
No change • 25%
