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Market
Impact on other parties' strategies after Labour wins Blackpool South
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Conservatives adjust strategies • 25%
Reform Party adjusts strategies • 25%
Other minor parties adjust strategies • 25%
No significant strategy changes • 25%
Analysis from political experts and news reports
Story
Labour Wins Blackpool South with Chris Webb, 26.33% Swing Against Tories
May 3, 2024, 03:50 AM
In a significant political shift, Labour has gained the Blackpool South seat in the by-election held on May 2, 2024. Local candidate Chris Webb led Labour to victory with 10,825 votes, significantly ahead of the Conservative and Reform candidates, who secured 3,218 and 3,101 votes respectively. This result, marking a 26.33% swing from Conservatives to Labour, is considered one of the largest in by-election history since World War II and represents a major setback for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The turnout was 32.5%.
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Similar markets
Labour • 33%
Conservative • 33%
Reform UK • 33%
Increase local campaigning • 33%
Shift in policy focus • 34%
No significant change • 33%
Policy revisions • 25%
Leadership changes • 25%
Coalition attempts • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Major overhaul • 33%
Minor adjustments • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Aggressive campaigning • 25%
Policy overhaul • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
No change in strategy • 25%
Stay as MP for Blackpool South • 34%
Run for Labour Party leadership • 33%
Seek a cabinet position • 33%
Labour wins majority • 25%
Labour forms coalition • 25%
Labour loses but increases seats • 25%
Labour loses with no significant gains • 25%
Increase Labour Vote Share • 33%
Decrease Labour Vote Share • 33%
No Significant Change • 33%
Enhanced Alliances • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Reduced Alliances • 25%
Isolation • 25%