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Impact of ICJ ruling on the Israel-Hamas conflict by end of 2024
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International Court of Justice•ICJ•Israel•Gaza•Rafah•South Africa•UN Genocide Convention•Hamas•Nawaf Salam
Resolution / Starting Odds
Escalation of conflict • 33%
De-escalation of conflict • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Conflict analysis reports, international news agencies
Story
ICJ Orders Israel to Immediately Halt Rafah Offensive Amid Genocide Accusations by 13 Judges
May 24, 2024, 04:26 PM
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) has issued an order for Israel to immediately halt its military operations in the southern Gaza city of Rafah. This ruling comes in response to an emergency motion filed by South Africa under the UN Genocide Convention, which accuses Israel of committing genocidal acts in Gaza. The ICJ's decision, supported by a vote of 13 judges to 2, cites the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Rafah as 'disastrous' and demands that Israel allow unimpeded access for humanitarian aid and investigators, withdraw troops, and open the Rafah crossing. Despite the ruling, Israel maintains its right to defend itself against Hamas militants and is unlikely to comply with the court's order. ICJ President Nawaf Salam emphasized the necessity of these measures.
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Increased isolation of Israel • 25%
ICC Investigation • 25%
ICJ Advisory Opinion • 25%
No International Legal Action • 25%
Other International Legal Measures • 25%
Full acceptance • 33%
Partial acceptance • 33%
Rejection • 34%
Ceasefire • 33%
Escalation of conflict • 33%
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Complete cessation • 25%
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Escalation of operations • 25%
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Condemn ICJ decision • 33%
No official response • 34%
Israeli victory • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Decisive IDF victory • 33%
Stalemate • 33%
Hamas retains control • 34%
Successful ceasefire • 33%
Temporary truce • 33%
No agreement reached • 34%