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Humanitarian impact in Gaza post-Rafah operation by September 30?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant deterioration • 25%
Moderate deterioration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Reports from major humanitarian organizations and UN agencies
Story
Israel to Launch Imminent Rafah Operation, Sinwar 'On Borrowed Time'
May 6, 2024, 11:52 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has announced an imminent military operation in Rafah, Gaza, in response to Hamas's refusal to agree to a ceasefire and hostage release proposals. The operation, described as necessary due to the lack of alternatives, follows unsuccessful ceasefire talks and Hamas's consistent rejection of any agreement framework. Gallant communicated these developments to U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, emphasizing that Israel had no choice but to initiate the offensive. This escalation comes amid warnings from Hamas that any operation in Rafah will be challenging for Israeli forces. Additionally, Israel's National Security Advisor noted that IDF will enter Rafah very soon and that Hamas chief Sinwar is 'living on borrowed time'.
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Significant increase in civilian casualties • 33%
Moderate increase • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Significant improvement • 33%
Moderate improvement • 33%
No change or deterioration • 34%
Increase in aid requirements • 33%
Stable humanitarian situation • 33%
Worsening humanitarian crisis • 34%
UN-led aid arrives • 34%
NGO-led aid arrives • 33%
No significant aid arrives • 33%
Aid increases • 33%
Aid decreases • 33%
Aid remains stable • 33%
Significantly improved • 33%
Moderately improved • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Significant progress made • 33%
Moderate progress made • 33%
No significant progress • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased aid and intervention • 33%
Maintained current level • 33%
Decreased aid and intervention • 33%
Extensive aid required • 33%
Moderate aid required • 33%
Minimal aid required • 34%
Deterioration of relations • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Improvement through new agreements • 33%
Fully resumed • 33%
Partially resumed • 33%
Not resumed • 33%