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How will US-Russia diplomatic relations change by Jun 30, 2025, after Ukraine uses US weapons?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations worsen significantly • 25%
Relations remain unchanged • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Temporary diplomatic pause • 25%
Diplomatic communications and statements from the US and Russian governments
Story
Biden Authorizes Ukraine to Use Long-Range US Weapons in Russia
Nov 18, 2024, 07:07 PM
President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use long-range US weapons in Russia. This decision comes after persistent lobbying by Ukrainian leaders since the first year of the war, urging Western allies to allow the use of advanced weaponry to target key Russian objectives. The move is expected to have significant implications for the ongoing conflict, potentially escalating tensions between the US and Russia.
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Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased support for Ukraine • 25%
Decreased support for Ukraine • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Continued military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic break • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Conflict escalates significantly • 25%
Conflict de-escalates • 25%
Stalemate continues • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Increased military success for Ukraine • 25%
Increased military tension with Russia • 25%
No significant change in conflict dynamics • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Improved relations • 33%
No change • 34%
Deteriorated relations • 33%
Relations worsen significantly • 25%
Relations remain stable • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
No significant change • 25%