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How will US-Israel relations change by the end of 2025 following the leak?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
Official government statements or credible news sources
Story
Ex-CIA Analyst Asif Rahman Faces Up to 20 Years After Pleading Guilty to Leaking Israeli Iran Strike Plans
Jan 17, 2025, 07:21 PM
Former CIA analyst Asif Rahman pleaded guilty on Friday in a Virginia federal court to leaking highly classified documents detailing Israeli military preparations for a retaliatory strike on Iran. Rahman, 34, who worked at the CIA since 2016 and was stationed at the U.S. Embassy in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, admitted to illegally downloading, printing, and transmitting national defense information. The Department of Justice announced that the leaked documents, which were posted on social media last year, led officials to delay the planned Israeli attack. Rahman was charged with two counts of transmitting top secret national defense information and faces up to 20 years in prison. Sentencing is scheduled for May 15.
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Other outcome • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
No change • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased support for Gaza • 25%
Maintained current stance • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased support for Israel • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic actions • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased opposition • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Return to previous neutral stance • 25%
Further alignment with UN resolutions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Adoption of a pro-Israel stance • 25%