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How will Israel-Iran relations change by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Official statements from Israeli or Iranian governments or credible media reports
Story
Asif William Rahman, Former CIA Analyst, Pleads Guilty to Leaking Israeli Strike Plans on Iran, Faces Up to 20 Years
Jan 17, 2025, 08:03 PM
Asif William Rahman, a 34-year-old former CIA analyst who worked for the agency since 2016 and held a top-secret security clearance, has pleaded guilty to leaking classified documents detailing Israel's military preparations for a retaliatory strike against Iran. Rahman was arrested by the FBI in Cambodia in November. He admitted to accessing and printing two top-secret documents on October 17, 2024, which he then photographed and transmitted to individuals not authorized to receive them. The leaked documents, which appeared on social media platforms, led to a delay in Israel's planned attack on Iran. Rahman faces up to 20 years in prison, with sentencing scheduled for May 15, 2025.
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Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Formal diplomatic actions • 25%
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New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No change in relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Strengthened relations • 25%
Weakened relations • 25%
Status Quo • 25%
Military Conflict • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Worsened Relations • 25%
Iran develops nuclear weapon • 25%
US conducts military strike • 25%
Diplomatic agreement reached • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Comprehensive Peace Agreement • 25%
Increased Tensions • 25%
Status Quo Maintained • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Iran isolated • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other developments • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%