Loading...
Market
How will the Russia-Belarus security treaty affect EU-Russia relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Russian•Vladimir Putin•Belarusian•Alexander Lukashenko•Palace of Independence•Minsk•Union State•Putin•Russia•Oreshnik•Belarus•Lukashenko
Resolution / Starting Odds
Deterioration • 25%
Improvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased economic sanctions • 25%
Official EU statements or credible diplomatic news reports
Story
Russia and Belarus Sign Security Treaty, Plan 2025 Deployment of Oreshnik IRBMs
Dec 6, 2024, 01:57 PM
On December 6, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko met at the Palace of Independence in Minsk for the Supreme State Council of the Union State. The two leaders signed a treaty on mutual security guarantees within the framework of the Union State, formalizing military cooperation and strategic alignment. The treaty includes mutual allied obligations to ensure defense and sovereignty, and includes provisions regarding the inviolability of their territories and the deployment of all types of forces, including tactical nuclear weapons. Putin announced the potential deployment of Russia's new "Oreshnik" intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) systems in Belarus, with deployment possibly occurring in the second half of 2025 as production increases. Lukashenko requested the deployment of these missiles, stating that "this would calm some minds." Putin indicated that the missiles would be integrated into Russia's Strategic Missile Forces, with Belarus determining the targets for those deployed on its territory.
View original story
Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
NATO condemnation • 25%
No major response • 25%
UN resolution • 25%
EU sanctions • 25%
Modified terms • 25%
Signed as planned • 25%
Delayed • 25%
Cancelled • 25%
Formal security guarantees granted • 25%
Informal assurances granted • 25%
No guarantees granted • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No significant changes • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
New military alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances weakened • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Military coup • 25%
New president elected • 25%
Alexander Lukashenko remains • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
United Kingdom • 25%
