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Market
How will the Mexican government respond to the proposed US tariff by January 15, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Negotiate with the US • 25%
Implement counter-tariffs • 25%
Take no action • 25%
Other response • 25%
Official statements from the Mexican government or major news outlets
Story
Trump Proposes 25% Tariff on Mexican Imports Over Border Security on Day One
Nov 4, 2024, 05:06 PM
Former President Donald Trump has announced a plan to impose a 25% tariff on all Mexican imports if Mexico does not take action to stop the flow of criminals and drugs into the United States. Trump emphasized that this measure would be implemented immediately and could be increased to 50% if necessary. This proposal aims to pressure Mexico, which has a new president, into enhancing its border security and curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking. Trump stated that he would inform the Mexican president on Day One that the tariff would apply to everything Mexico sends into the United States.
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Implement new border security measures • 25%
Negotiate with the U.S. • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Introduce retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Seek diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico imposes retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Mexico seeks renegotiation of trade terms • 25%
Mexico takes no immediate action • 25%
Mexico files a complaint with the WTO • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No action • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase border security • 25%
Negotiate trade terms • 25%
Seek international mediation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No action • 25%
Other • 25%
Mexico complies with demands • 25%
Mexico negotiates alternative solution • 25%
Mexico retaliates with own tariffs • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Complies with demands • 25%
Negotiates a compromise • 25%
Retaliates with tariffs • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased drug seizures • 25%
Trade negotiations • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Tariffs on U.S. imports • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
Legal actions • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Retaliatory tariffs • 25%
Negotiations without tariffs • 25%
No response • 25%
Other measures • 25%
