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Market
How many new defense agreements will be signed between the U.S. and Japan by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
One new agreement • 25%
Two or more new agreements • 25%
No new agreements • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or Japanese government
Story
U.S. Approves Sale of 1,200 AIM-120D-3 and AIM-120C-8 AMRAAM Missiles to Japan for $3.64 Billion
Jan 3, 2025, 01:00 PM
The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of up to 1,200 AIM-120D-3 and AIM-120C-8 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) and related equipment to Japan, valued at approximately $3.64 billion. The sale aims to bolster Japan's defense capabilities against regional threats, particularly from China, and enhance security cooperation between the U.S. and Japan in the Indo-Pacific region. The missiles, produced by RTX Corporation, will support Japan's efforts to defend its homeland and U.S. personnel stationed there.
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Strengthened ties • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Remain the same • 25%
Increase but less than 3% of GDP • 25%
Increase to 3% of GDP • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Formal trade dispute • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Relations deteriorate • 25%
Sale modified • 25%
Sale cancelled • 25%
Sale postponed • 25%
Sale completed • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Severe deterioration • 25%
Strained relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Reduced military agreements • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
Strengthened military agreements • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
New alliance formation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased cooperation • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%