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How long will the U.S. government shutdown last if it occurs by January 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
1-7 days • 25%
8-14 days • 25%
15-30 days • 25%
More than 30 days • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or major news outlets
Story
House Fails to Pass Trump-Backed Funding Bill as 38 Republicans Vote No, Shutdown Looms
Dec 20, 2024, 12:02 AM
On December 19, 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives failed to pass a Trump-backed Continuing Resolution (CR) intended to avert a government shutdown and suspend the debt ceiling. The bill required a two-thirds majority but fell short with a vote count of 174-235-1. Notably, 38 Republicans, despite endorsements from President-elect Donald Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, voted against the bill. The failure leaves Congress with no clear plan to prevent a shutdown set to begin at midnight on December 20.
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Shutdown averted with new funding bill • 25%
Shutdown occurs but resolved before January 31 • 25%
Shutdown extends beyond January 31 • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended without shutdown • 25%
Shutdown occurs • 25%
Continuing Resolution passed • 25%
Short-term funding bill passed • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
