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Exceeds 100,000 military-aged men return to Ukraine by end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Ukrainian government official records or credible news reports
Story
Ukraine Orders Overseas Men to Return for Draft, Ethical Concerns Raised
Apr 28, 2024, 05:04 PM
On April 24, the Ukrainian government announced measures to compel military-aged men residing abroad to return and join the military efforts, amid ongoing conflicts. These measures include withholding state and consular services for those avoiding the draft, as well as a new law on mobilization that increases border patrols to prevent evasion. Notably, men needing to replace their passports must return to Ukraine, where they face potential conscription. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski described the situation as 'ethically ambiguous,' highlighting the ethical concerns and potential for a national split, as reported by various sources including France Info and The New York Times.
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Similar markets
Majority return to Ukraine • 25%
Majority seek asylum or immigration elsewhere • 25%
No significant movement observed • 25%
Significant legal challenges against the policy • 25%
High enrollment • 33%
Moderate enrollment • 33%
Low enrollment • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Under 10,000 • 25%
10,000 to 30,000 • 25%
30,001 to 50,000 • 25%
Over 50,000 • 25%