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Market
Clashes occur on Belarus-Ukraine border by end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Belarusian and Ukrainian defense departments, news reports
Story
Lukashenko Announces Reduction of Tensions on Ukraine Border, Troops Withdrawal
Jul 13, 2024, 04:29 PM
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced a reduction of tensions on the border with Ukraine. Following specific actions by Belarus, Ukraine has withdrawn its armed forces and additional troops from the border. Lukashenko has guaranteed that there will be no clashes on the border and instructed Belarusian soldiers to withdraw to their permanent bases on the southern borders. Ukraine's Defence Intelligence also confirmed that there are no additional threats from Belarus at present, according to Belta.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Fully de-escalated • 25%
Partially de-escalated • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Escalated • 25%
No escalation • 33%
Minor skirmishes • 33%
Full-scale conflict • 33%
Direct military conflict • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Continued standoff without escalation • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued skirmishes without major escalation • 33%
Major military offensive by Belarus • 33%
Ceasefire or significant de-escalation • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%