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Market
Brazilian military investigates coup plot by March 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Brazilian military or government
Story
Bolsonaro Implicated in Assassination Plot and Military Coup Against Lula
Nov 30, 2024, 01:51 PM
Brazilian federal police have uncovered a plot to assassinate President Lula da Silva, involving former President Jair Bolsonaro and his allies, according to declassified documents. The investigation has revealed that Bolsonaro was 'fully aware' of the assassination plot, which aimed to prevent Lula from assuming office in 2023. The conspiracy involved elite military personnel, war-grade weaponry, and chemical agents, with plans to target not only Lula but also his vice president and a high-ranking judge. The plot was part of a broader scheme to overthrow Brazil's democratic system through a military coup, which Bolsonaro allegedly helped to mastermind. The police report details how the plot was organized into various commands for disinformation, agitation within military barracks, espionage, and logistics, involving 37 accused conspirators.
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No official stance • 25%
Denial of involvement • 25%
Acknowledgement of involvement • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Ongoing Investigation • 25%
No Action • 25%
Investigation Closed • 25%
Further Arrests • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Oppose the investigation • 25%
Unaware of investigation • 25%
Support the investigation • 25%
No • 50%
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Yes • 50%
Sandro Nunes Vieira • 25%
Jair Bolsonaro • 25%
Valdemar Costa Neto • 25%
Marcelo Câmara • 25%
Convicted • 25%
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Tensions escalate • 25%
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