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Average NATO defense spending as % of GDP by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Below 2% • 25%
2% to 3% • 25%
3% to 4% • 25%
Above 4% • 25%
NATO's official budget reports or defense expenditure data
Story
Trump Demands NATO Countries More Than Double Defense Spending to 5% of GDP
Jan 7, 2025, 06:46 PM
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has called for NATO member countries to significantly increase their defense spending to 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP), more than doubling the current target of 2%. Trump emphasized that all NATO countries can afford this increase, stating, 'They can all afford it, but they should be at 5%, not 2%.' This demand comes as part of Trump's ongoing critique of NATO's burden-sharing, where he has historically argued that the U.S. disproportionately funds the alliance. The call for increased spending has sparked reactions across Europe, with some political figures pushing back against the proposal.
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Similar markets
Below 2% • 25%
Above 4% • 25%
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3% • 25%
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20% to 29% • 25%
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10% to 19% • 25%
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0-5 countries • 25%
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25-27 • 25%
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28-30 • 25%
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Remain at 3.5% • 25%
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Increase to 4-4.9% • 25%
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No new target set • 25%
