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Will U.S. manufacturers report significant impact from tariffs on Mexico and Canada by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major U.S. manufacturing associations or credible economic analysis reports
Story
Trump Proposes Mexico, Canada as U.S. States, Floats Tariffs Impacting U.S. Manufacturers
Dec 8, 2024, 03:50 PM
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed that Mexico and Canada should become the 51st and 52nd states of the United States. Trump cited the financial support provided by U.S. taxpayers to these neighboring countries as justification for his suggestion. He implied that if Mexico and Canada continue to receive subsidies from the U.S., they should integrate as states. Trump has also floated the idea of imposing big tariffs on Mexico and Canada, a move that could impact U.S. manufacturers caught in the middle. This proposal aligns with Trump's history of advocating for policies that prioritize U.S. economic interests.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Implemented with full effect • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Moderate negative impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Positive impact • 25%
Tariffs implemented • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs withdrawn • 25%
Moderate downturn • 25%
Severe recession • 25%
Other • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%