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Market
Will U.S. job-stayers' median annual pay change fall below 4.5% in November 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
ADP National Employment Report for November 2024
Story
U.S. Private Employers Add 233,000 Jobs in October, Exceeding Forecasts, Largest Gain Since July
Oct 30, 2024, 12:16 PM
U.S. private employers added 233,000 jobs in October, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report, significantly surpassing economists' expectations of around 110,000 and marking the largest monthly increase since July 2023. The previous month's figure was revised upward from 143,000 to 159,000. The report indicates that hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient. Additionally, job-stayers saw a median change in annual pay of 4.6%, slightly down from 4.7% in the prior month, suggesting wage growth is moderating. The strong job creation underscores the resilience of the U.S. labor market despite economic uncertainties.
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Below 4.5% • 25%
4.5% to 4.7% • 25%
4.7% to 4.9% • 25%
Above 4.9% • 25%
Above 4.9% • 50%
4.9% or Below • 50%
Less than 4.5% • 25%
4.5% to 4.9% • 25%
5.0% to 5.4% • 25%
5.5% or more • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
