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Market
Will Trump win the Iowa Republican Caucus 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official results from the Iowa Republican Party
Story
Trump Leads Iowa by 18 Points in Ann Selzer Poll
Jun 17, 2024, 01:03 PM
Former President Donald Trump is showing a significant lead in Iowa according to a recent poll by Ann Selzer, a highly regarded pollster. The poll indicates that Trump is currently leading by 18 points, a substantial increase from his 8-point victory in Iowa during the 2020 election. This surge in support is notable given that in June 2020, the same poll had Trump up by only 1 point over Joe Biden. The results suggest that Trump is in a strong position not only in Iowa but potentially in neighboring states like Wisconsin and Minnesota. Political analysts are taking these findings seriously, highlighting the dramatic shift in voter sentiment. For context, Obama won Iowa by 15 points in 2008 and by 5 points in 2012.
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