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Will Trump-Harris popular vote margin be less than 1% in 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Final certified election results published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) or equivalent state authorities
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Trump's Popular Vote Lead Narrows to 1.8% with 76.5 Million Votes, 4 Million Left to Count
Nov 16, 2024, 04:52 PM
As of November 16, 2024, Donald Trump is experiencing a decline in his popular vote share, currently standing at 49.99% with approximately 152.7 million votes counted. His lead over Kamala Harris is narrow, at 1.8 percentage points, marking one of the closest margins for a president-elect in U.S. history. Trump has received 76.5 million votes, while Harris has garnered 73.9 million. With around 4 million votes still left to be counted, projections suggest that Trump may finish with about 4 million more votes than he did in the 2020 election, while Harris is expected to receive 4 million fewer votes compared to her 2020 total. This election is shaping up to be notably close, with Trump's current popular vote lead slipping below 50% and potentially ending with a margin as low as 1%.
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