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Will there be confirmation of casualties among senior Hezbollah leaders by October 31, 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
News reports from Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, or official Hezbollah statements
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Communication Lost with Senior Hezbollah Leaders After Israeli Strikes on Beirut on Sept 28
Sep 27, 2024, 09:17 PM
Communication with senior Hezbollah leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, has been lost following Israeli strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs on Sept 28. Multiple sources, including Reuters and The Wall Street Journal, report that Hezbollah members have been unable to reach their senior leadership by phone since the Israeli strike. The strikes targeted a command bunker in the suburbs of Beirut, where senior officials from Hezbollah and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps were present. The lower echelons of Hezbollah are reportedly uncertain about their next steps or whom to report to.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Muhammad Haydar • 25%
Naim Qassem • 25%
Talal Hamiya • 25%
None of the above • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No clear leadership • 25%