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Will there be any geopolitical tensions arising from the Oruç Reis mission in Somali waters by May 31, 2025?
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Turkey•Oruç Reis•Somalia•Somali•Istanbul•Turkish•Tayyip Erdoğan•Abdirizak Omar Mohamed•Alparslan Bayraktar
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international organizations or credible news outlets
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Turkey Dispatches Oruç Reis to Somalia for Seven-Month 3D Seismic Oil and Gas Exploration
Oct 5, 2024, 11:25 AM
Turkey has sent the Oruç Reis seismic research vessel to Somalia to embark on a seven-month mission to search for oil and natural gas in Somali waters. The vessel departed from Istanbul and is expected to arrive off the coast of Somalia at the end of October. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Somali officials, including Somalia's Petroleum Minister Abdirizak Omar Mohamed, attended the farewell ceremony. The Oruç Reis will conduct 3D seismic surveys offshore Somalia, covering three maritime jurisdictions, following an agreement on energy cooperation between the two countries. Turkey's Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar and Somalia's Petroleum Minister reviewed the vessel's work in Somali waters and explored future land-based cooperation.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Continues as primary mediator • 25%
Steps back from mediation • 25%
Mediation role shared with other countries • 25%
No longer involved • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Continued tension • 25%
Other • 25%
Philippines gains control • 25%
China gains control • 25%
Ongoing standoff • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Oil • 25%
Natural Gas • 25%
Both Oil and Natural Gas • 25%
Neither • 25%
By September 30, 2024 • 25%
Between October 1, 2024 and October 15, 2024 • 25%
Between October 16, 2024 and October 31, 2024 • 25%
After October 31, 2024 • 25%
Yes, more than 500 troops • 25%
Yes, 100-500 troops • 25%
Yes, less than 100 troops • 25%
No troops deployed • 25%
Commercially viable oil reserves • 25%
Commercially viable natural gas reserves • 25%
Both commercially viable oil and natural gas reserves • 25%
No commercially viable reserves • 25%