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Will there be an international diplomatic intervention in Gaza hostage situation by January 20, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from the United Nations or major international news outlets
Story
Trump Threatens "All Hell to Pay" if Gaza Hostages Not Freed Before January 20, 2025
Dec 2, 2024, 07:05 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has issued a stern warning regarding the hostages held by Hamas in Gaza, stating that if they are not released before he takes office on January 20, 2025, there will be severe consequences in the Middle East. Trump emphasized that "there will be all hell to pay in the Middle East" if the hostages are not freed prior to his inauguration. He further declared that those responsible will be "hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied history of the United States of America." Describing the hostage situation as "violent" and "inhumane," Trump demanded, "Release the hostages now!" This message, referencing the hostages taken during the October 7 attacks, has drawn international attention.
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Successful negotiation • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions on Israel • 25%
Sanctions on Hamas • 25%
Diplomatic Intervention • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
UN intervention • 25%
US-led coalition response • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Other • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
UN Intervention • 25%
US Mediation • 25%
EU Sanctions • 25%
No Significant Action • 25%
UN sanctions on Hamas • 25%
Mediation efforts by a third country • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Other • 25%
UN sanctions on Hamas • 25%
Increased international aid to Gaza • 25%
No significant international action • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
UN-led intervention • 25%
NATO-led intervention • 25%
No international intervention • 25%
Other international intervention • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%