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Will there be a significant shake-up in Iranian government ranks due to infiltration concerns by Dec 31, 2024?
2
Iran•Ayatollah Ali Khamenei•Hezbollah•Hassan Nasrallah•Lebanon•Israeli•Khamenei•Tehran•Iranian•Reuters•Nilfroushian•Nasrallah
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Iranian government or credible news sources like Reuters
Story
Iran's Khamenei Warned Nasrallah of Israeli Plot Before Assassination: Reuters
Oct 2, 2024, 02:53 PM
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to flee Lebanon days before he was killed in an Israeli strike. Khamenei is now deeply concerned about Israeli infiltration of senior government ranks in Tehran, according to three Iranian sources cited by Reuters. The warning was reportedly conveyed by Khamenei's close adviser General Nilfroushian, who was killed alongside Nasrallah.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
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Nasrallah replaced • 25%
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Replaced with more hardline leaders • 25%
Replaced with more moderate leaders • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased influence of Revolutionary Guard • 25%
Appointment of new military leaders • 25%
Reorganization of military command • 25%
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Both replaced • 25%
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Air Defense leadership change • 25%
Overall military leadership change • 25%
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New Supreme Leader • 25%
New Military General • 25%
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Khamenei replaced • 25%
Military leadership change • 25%
No change • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Supreme Leader changes • 25%
President changes • 25%
Both change • 25%
No change • 25%
Khamenei remains in power • 25%
Khamenei replaced by another cleric • 25%
Khamenei replaced by a reformist • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Qaani replaced • 25%
Deputy promoted • 25%
No changes • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%