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Will there be a significant diplomatic conflict between India and China over the situation in Bangladesh by the end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Indian and Chinese governments or reputable news sources like BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera
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Indian Intelligence, Including RAW, Accuses ISI and China of Orchestrating Protests Leading to Sheikh Hasina's Removal
Aug 6, 2024, 08:01 AM
Indian intelligence agencies, including RAW, have accused Pakistan's ISI and China of orchestrating the protests that led to the removal of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Sources within the Indian intelligence establishment suggest that the ISI, with support from China, played a significant role in escalating the unrest in Bangladesh. The situation has raised concerns about the stability of the region, with reports indicating that the conspiracy to oust Hasina had been planned for months. The involvement of external forces in the protests has been a point of contention, with various sources pointing to a coordinated effort to destabilize the Bangladeshi government.
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Formal Apology from India • 25%
Joint Investigation Agreed • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Other Diplomatic Actions • 25%
Enhanced security cooperation agreed • 25%
Formal apology issued by India • 25%
No significant outcome • 25%
Other diplomatic measures • 25%
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Summit Meeting • 25%
Trade Agreement • 25%
Cultural Exchange Program • 25%
Military Cooperation Event • 25%
Sanctions imposed by a major country or organization • 25%
International recognition and support • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Other • 25%
United States confirmed • 25%
China confirmed • 25%
Other country confirmed • 25%
No interference confirmed • 25%
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Complete disengagement • 25%
Partial disengagement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New conflict • 25%
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No • 50%
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No • 50%