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Market
Will there be a leadership change in the Kenyan opposition due to the protests by December 31, 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
New opposition leader • 33%
Current leader remains • 33%
Leadership dispute • 33%
Official opposition party announcements, major news outlets
Story
Kenyan Police Fire on Protesters, Ten Killed as Parliament Set Ablaze Amid Tax Hike Protests
Jun 25, 2024, 01:40 PM
Kenyan police have fired tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition at young protesters demonstrating against a newly passed finance bill that introduces significant tax hikes. The protests, which have escalated across the country, saw thousands of demonstrators storming the Parliament buildings in Nairobi. As the situation intensified, part of the Parliament building was set on fire, and several legislators were forced to flee. Reports indicate that at least ten protesters have been killed and dozens wounded in the clashes. The bill, which is backed by the IMF, has sparked widespread anger among Kenyans who see it as an unfair burden amid a cost of living crisis. Police also reportedly beat protesters, and at least three people were shot dead.
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New finance bill proposed • 25%
Major cabinet reshuffle • 25%
Early general elections called • 25%
No significant political event • 25%
William Ruto • 25%
Deputy President • 25%
Opposition Leader • 25%
Other • 25%
William Ruto remains in office • 33%
William Ruto steps down • 33%
Government reshuffle without Ruto stepping down • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Curfew imposed • 25%
Protests disperse peacefully • 25%
Violent clashes continue • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Government crackdown escalates • 25%
Protests continue • 25%
Protests end with government concessions • 25%
Protests end with no concessions • 25%
