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Will the U.S. unemployment rate increase by October 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly unemployment reports
Story
U.S. Job Growth Overstated by 818,000, 0.5% Reduction in Largest Revision in 15 Years
Aug 21, 2024, 02:47 PM
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised its nonfarm payroll figures, revealing that the U.S. economy added 818,000 fewer jobs from March 2023 to March 2024 than initially reported. This significant downward revision, the largest in 15 years, indicates that job growth was overestimated by nearly 30%, with a 0.5% reduction in employment levels. The revision suggests that the labor market cooled more rapidly than previously thought, with average monthly job gains reduced from 242,000 to 174,000. The professional and business services sector experienced the largest decline, losing 358,000 jobs. The adjustment could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially leading to a rate cut next month.
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