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Market
Will the US start mass production of plutonium pits by mid-2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the US Department of Energy or major news reports.
Story
US Energy Department Produces First Plutonium Pit Since 1989 Amid Mass Production and Supreme Court Review
Oct 11, 2024, 08:02 PM
The United States Department of Energy has manufactured its first plutonium pit since 1989, marking a significant step in nuclear weapons production. This plutonium pit is crucial for the core of thermonuclear warheads, which initiate explosions. While the Energy Department is reportedly moving towards mass production of these warhead-ready pits, uncertainties remain, particularly following a recent federal court ruling that may impact the future of such production. Additionally, the Supreme Court is set to review the legality of temporary storage facilities for nuclear waste, a decision that could significantly influence the nation’s nuclear energy strategy.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in warhead count • 25%
Development of new delivery systems • 25%
Modernization of existing arsenal • 25%
Other • 25%
Expand significantly • 25%
Expand moderately • 25%
No expansion • 25%
Reduce nuclear force • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
