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Will the U.S. increase security guarantees for Ukraine without nuclear weapons by end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from U.S. government or credible news outlets
Story
U.S. Officials Discuss Providing Nuclear Weapons to Ukraine Amid Security Talks
Nov 25, 2024, 05:12 PM
U.S. officials have reportedly discussed the possibility of providing nuclear weapons to Ukraine, according to multiple sources including the New York Times. This discussion comes as part of a broader conversation on security guarantees for Ukraine, with some officials suggesting that President Biden could return nuclear weapons to Ukraine that were removed after the fall of the Soviet Union. The talks have sparked concerns about potential escalation in the ongoing conflict with Russia, with Russian officials warning that such a move could be considered an attack on Russia, potentially triggering a nuclear response.
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Return of nuclear weapons • 25%
Increased conventional weapons stockpile • 25%
Increased NATO presence • 25%
No additional guarantees • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Full security guarantees provided • 25%
Partial security guarantees provided • 25%
No security guarantees provided • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
