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Will the U.S. government publicly negotiate for Gene Spector's release by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Statements from the U.S. State Department or credible news reports
Story
Russia Sentences American Ex-Medpolymerprom Chairman to 15 Years for Espionage
Dec 24, 2024, 10:18 AM
A Moscow court has sentenced American citizen Gene Spector, the former chairman of the board of directors of the Medpolymerprom group, to 15 years in a maximum-security prison on espionage charges. Additionally, he was fined 14 million rubles. Spector, who was born in Russia and later emigrated to the United States, was previously arrested in 2020 and sentenced in 2021 to three and a half years in prison for acting as an intermediary in bribery. He was accused of facilitating a bribe to an aide of a former Russian deputy prime minister. The details of the espionage charges remain undisclosed, as the trial was held behind closed doors.
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Release on humanitarian grounds • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
United States • 25%
Russia • 25%
Third-party country • 25%
No significant negotiations • 25%
Yes • 50%
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US Secretary of State • 25%
US Ambassador to Russia • 25%
White House National Security Advisor • 25%
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Diplomatic protest • 25%
Sanctions against Russia • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other diplomatic measures • 25%
Only US and Russia • 25%
US, Russia, and EU • 25%
US, Russia, and China • 25%
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