Official GDP reports and NBER recession declarations

US 2-Year and 10-Year Yield Curve Turns Positive, Ending Longest Inversion in History

Sep 4, 2024, 02:31 PM

The US yield curve, specifically the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, has turned positive for only the second time since 2022, ending its longest period of inversion in history. The yield curve had been inverted for approximately 790 days, raising concerns about a potential recession. The dis-inversion is seen as a significant milestone, with bond traders closely monitoring the development. Historically, the end of an inverted yield curve has often signaled the onset of a recession. Equity traders are also eyeing this change as a positive sign for stocks, with the S&P 500 potentially reaching a new record. The yield curve had spent the past 26 months in inversion.