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Market
Will the US debt ceiling be raised, suspended, or unchanged by the end of FY 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Raised • 50%
Suspended • 50%
Unchanged • 50%
US Treasury Department announcements
Story
CBO Raises 2024 US Budget Deficit Estimate to $1.915 Trillion, a 27% Increase
Jun 18, 2024, 06:10 PM
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has significantly revised its estimate for the U.S. federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2024, increasing it to $1.915 trillion from the previous estimate of $1.5 trillion. This 27% increase, amounting to $408 billion, is attributed to higher outlays for student loans, FDIC bank resolutions, aid to Ukraine and Israel, and Medicaid. In May 2024, the government paid $103 billion to service interest on the debt. The CBO also projects that the national debt will reach over $50 trillion by 2034, driven by rising defense costs and safety net spending. Additionally, the CBO forecasts real GDP growth for 2024 at 2.0%, up from the previous estimate of 1.5% in February.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Permanent abolition • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
Compromise with new conditions • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
Abolished • 25%
Extended to 2029 • 25%
Extended with a different date • 25%
No change • 25%
Debt ceiling abolished • 25%
Debt ceiling raised • 25%
Debt ceiling unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Abolished • 25%
Suspended • 25%
Increased • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Abolished • 25%
Extended • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Other • 25%
Debt ceiling increased • 25%
Debt ceiling remains unchanged • 25%
Temporary extension • 25%
No resolution • 25%
