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Market
Will the DMA designation of iPadOS lead to legal disputes between Apple and the EU within a year?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Legal filings and public court records.
Story
EU Designates Apple's iPadOS as 'Gatekeeper', Sets Compliance Deadline
Apr 29, 2024, 10:25 AM
The European Commission has designated Apple's iPadOS as a 'gatekeeper' under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), aligning it with other Apple services like iOS, the App Store, and Safari which were previously subject to these regulations. The designation means Apple must make significant adjustments to iPadOS to comply with the DMA within six months. The DMA aims to prevent large tech companies from monopolizing the market, and although iPad does not currently hold a dominant market position, the EU is preemptively applying these rules in anticipation of potential market dominance.
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Expand DMA to more companies • 33%
Strengthen existing DMA regulations • 33%
Maintain current level of enforcement • 34%
Settlement • 33%
Fine without settlement • 33%
Apple wins case • 34%
Apple's stock price rises • 25%
Apple's stock price falls • 25%
Apple's stock price remains stable • 25%
Market conditions overshadow DMA impact • 25%
Less than $1 billion • 33%
$1 billion to $5 billion • 33%
More than $5 billion • 34%
Apple wins • 33%
European Commission wins • 33%
Case settled out of court • 34%
