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Market
Will THAAD deployment in Israel escalate military conflict with Iran by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified news reports from reputable sources like Reuters or BBC
Story
Biden Faces Critical Decision Amid Rising Israel-Iran Tensions, Deploys US Troops and THAAD Missiles
Oct 13, 2024, 05:14 PM
President Joe Biden faces a critical decision as tensions between Israel and Iran escalate, potentially dragging the United States into another Middle East conflict. Critics argue that Biden's decision to deploy US troops and THAAD missiles in Israel could lead to an unnecessary war, with some suggesting that this move serves Israel's interests more than those of the US. The Biden administration's actions have raised concerns about bypassing both international and US domestic law, as the deployment has not been authorized by Congress. Some have likened the situation to a 'Sarajevo moment' and accused Biden of facilitating genocide.
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Successful deterrence with no conflict • 25%
Minor skirmishes • 25%
Major military conflict • 25%
THAAD withdrawal without incident • 25%
Increased joint exercises • 25%
Withdrawal of US troops • 25%
Expansion of US military presence • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Supportive • 25%
Neutral • 25%
Critical • 25%
No official response • 25%
