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Will Tencent file a lawsuit against the U.S. government over Section 1260H listing by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Legal filings and court records
Story
U.S. Adds Tencent, CATL to Military Aid List, Prompting 6.5% Stock Drop
Jan 6, 2025, 05:09 PM
The U.S. Department of Defense has added several Chinese companies, including Tencent Holdings Ltd., Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. (CATL), Autel Robotics, Changxin Memory Technologies Inc., and Quectel Wireless, to its list of firms allegedly aiding the Chinese military. This designation was made public through a Federal Register filing and is part of the annually updated 'Section 1260H list,' which now includes 134 companies. The move does not immediately impose regulatory restrictions but signals U.S. concerns about these companies. Following the announcement, Tencent's shares dropped over 6.5% in U.S. trading. Tencent has contested the designation, stating it is 'clearly a mistake' and asserting that it is not a military company or supplier. The inclusion on this list could potentially lead to delisting or removal from indexes for the affected companies.
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Remains on list • 25%
Partial removal (some subsidiaries removed) • 25%
Appeal rejected • 25%
Removed from list • 25%
Pending litigation • 25%
Designation upheld • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Designation overturned • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased lobbying efforts • 25%
Increased focus on non-US markets • 25%
Legal action against the US • 25%
No significant strategic change • 25%
Removed from list • 33%
Remains on list • 33%
Modified designation • 34%
