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Will tariffs become the primary revenue source for the External Revenue Service by mid-2025?

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Donald Trump•External Revenue Service•Internal Revenue Service•IRS•American•Trump

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official policy documents or statements from the External Revenue Service

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Trump to Replace IRS with External Revenue Service Collecting Foreign Tariffs

Jan 14, 2025, 04:48 PM

President-elect Donald Trump announced he will create an 'External Revenue Service' to collect tariffs, duties, and all revenue from foreign sources, aiming to replace the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). The new department seeks to reduce reliance on taxing American citizens. Trump stated, 'We will begin charging those that make money off of us with trade, and they will start paying, finally, their fair share.' The External Revenue Service is set to be formed on January 20.

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Will the ERS collect over $50 billion in tariffs by January 20, 2026?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will the ERS collect tariffs from any foreign country by March 31, 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

What will be the primary revenue collection method of the ERS by June 30, 2025?

Duties • 25%

Tariffs • 25%

Export Fees • 25%

Other • 25%

Will the U.S. implement new tariffs on critical imports by the end of 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will new tariff-related legislation be introduced in Congress by mid-2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will the US implement tariffs on critical imports by end of 2025?

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

New U.S. Trade Tariffs on China by March 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will proposed tariffs lead to a measurable increase in US manufacturing by mid-2026?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will the US impose new tariffs on Mexico by mid-2025?

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Will the U.S. impose new tariffs on Chinese goods by the end of Q2 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will the US implement five-year tariffs on critical imports by end of 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will the U.S. impose new tariffs on Chinese imports in 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

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Will the External Revenue Service be officially created by January 31, 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will the IRS be replaced by the External Revenue Service by the end of 2025?

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

What will be the total revenue collected by the External Revenue Service in 2025?

$200 billion to $300 billion • 25%

Less than $100 billion • 25%

More than $300 billion • 25%

$100 billion to $200 billion • 25%

Which country will face the highest tariffs from the External Revenue Service by the end of 2025?

European Union • 25%

Canada • 25%

China • 25%

Mexico • 25%