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Will Taiwan impose sanctions on China in response to Yang Chih-yuan's sentencing by the end of 2024?

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China•Taiwan•Yang•Wenzhou•Zhejiang Province

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official statements from the Taiwanese government or news reports

Story

China Sentences Taiwanese Activist Yang Chih-yuan to Nine Years in Prison

Sep 6, 2024, 07:45 AM

China has sentenced Taiwanese activist Yang Chih-yuan (楊智淵) to nine years in prison on charges of separatism and secession. Yang, who was detained in Wenzhou, Zhejiang Province in August 2022, received the rare sentence, prompting Taiwan to warn its citizens about the risks of traveling to China.

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What will be Taiwan's government official action in response to Yang Chih-yuan's sentencing by the end of 2024?

Issue a travel ban to mainland China • 25%

File a formal complaint to the UN • 25%

Increase military readiness • 25%

Other • 25%

Will China impose sanctions on Taiwan by December 31, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Taiwan Imposes New Sanctions on China by November 30, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will China impose additional economic sanctions on Taiwan by Dec 31, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will China impose new official sanctions on Taiwan by December 31, 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

What will be the international response to Taiwan's death penalty ruling by the end of 2024?

UN condemnation • 25%

EU condemnation • 25%

Human rights organizations' condemnation • 25%

No significant international response • 25%

What will be China's primary action in response to international criticism over Yang Chih-yuan's sentencing by the end of 2024?

Increase diplomatic pressure on Taiwan • 25%

Issue a formal rebuttal • 25%

Take no further action • 25%

Other • 25%

Will Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party issue an official statement condemning Yang Chih-yuan's sentence by the end of 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Which major international entity will first formally condemn Yang Chih-yuan's sentencing by the end of 2024?

United States • 25%

European Union • 25%

Japan • 25%

Other • 25%

Will China impose new economic sanctions on Taiwan by June 30, 2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will the U.S. impose sanctions on China related to Dong Yuyu's case by mid-2025?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will China impose sanctions or restrictions on Taiwanese athletes by December 31, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

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Will China release Yang Chih-yuan before September 6, 2025?

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Will Taiwan issue a new travel advisory for China by the end of 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

What will be the scale of public protests in Taiwan in response to Yang Chih-yuan's sentencing by the end of 2024?

Protests with 1,000 to 10,000 participants • 25%

Protests with more than 10,000 participants • 25%

No significant protests • 25%

Protests with fewer than 1,000 participants • 25%

What will be the stance of Taiwan's presidential candidates on Yang Chih-yuan's sentencing by January 31, 2025?

Both candidates support Yang • 25%

Candidate A supports Yang • 25%

Neither candidate supports Yang • 25%

Candidate B supports Yang • 25%