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Market
Will SpaceX experience a launch failure in NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 launches by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from SpaceX or the U.S. Space Force
Story
SpaceX Secures $733.6M in Contracts from US Space Force for 9 National Security Launches
Oct 18, 2024, 10:42 PM
SpaceX has been awarded contracts worth $733.6 million by the U.S. Space Force for national security space missions. The contracts, part of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 program, include at least nine launches. These launches are intended to support various national security objectives, including seven Space Development Agency (SDA) launches and one National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) mission. The awards are part of a broader initiative to foster competition among launch providers.
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Falcon 9 • 25%
Starship • 25%
Falcon Heavy • 25%
None • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Less than 50 • 25%
50 to 75 • 25%
76 to 100 • 25%
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Booster recovery anomaly • 25%
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Payload issue • 25%
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Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
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