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Market
Will space debris from the Chinese Long March 6A rocket re-enter Earth's atmosphere by end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from space agencies such as NASA, ESA, or independent tracking organizations
Story
Chinese Long March 6A Rocket Breaks Up, Creating Over 50 Pieces of Space Debris
Aug 7, 2024, 11:01 PM
A Chinese Long March 6A rocket, launched from the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center on August 7, 2024, has reportedly broken up in space. The breakup has resulted in the creation of over 50 pieces of space debris, posing a significant hazard to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) constellations below 800 km altitude. The rocket was part of a mission to launch 18 G60 satellites. S4S has confirmed the breakup of the rocket.
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Similar markets
Controlled re-entry and destruction • 25%
Uncontrolled re-entry • 25%
Re-entry delayed beyond 2024 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All debris cataloged and tracked • 25%
Partial debris cataloged • 25%
No debris cataloged • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
