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Will Sarkozy's ineligibility for public office be overturned by end of 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
French judicial announcements and media reports
Story
France's Highest Court Confirms Ex-President Sarkozy's Definitive Conviction; One Year Under Electronic Monitoring
Dec 18, 2024, 01:19 PM
France's highest court, the Cour de Cassation, has definitively confirmed former President Nicolas Sarkozy's conviction for corruption, influence-peddling, and violation of professional secrecy in the 'Affaire des écoutes', also known as the 'Bismuth affair'. The court rejected all defense appeals, rendering the penalties definitive. Sarkozy is sentenced to three years in prison, including one year to be served under electronic monitoring (bracelet électronique), and faces three years of ineligibility. This marks the first time in France's Fifth Republic that a former president has been definitively convicted and sentenced to prison for corruption. His lawyer stated that Sarkozy will comply with the sentence but will appeal to the European Court of Human Rights.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Runs for Office • 25%
Retires from Politics • 25%
Joins Political Party in Non-Elective Role • 25%
Other • 25%
Appeal accepted • 25%
Appeal rejected • 25%
Decision delayed • 25%
Other • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Attempts political comeback • 25%
Involved in political advisory role • 25%
Other political involvement • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Appeal Accepted • 25%
Appeal Rejected • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Appeal accepted • 33%
Appeal rejected • 33%
Case dismissed • 34%
Accepted • 33%
Rejected • 33%
Pending Decision • 34%
Conviction upheld • 25%
Conviction overturned • 25%
Case sent back to French courts • 25%
Other outcome • 25%