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Market
Will Russia's oil exports decrease by more than 20% by March 31, 2025 due to sanctions?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
International Energy Agency (IEA) and official Russian export statistics
Story
UK Sanctions 10 Russian Vessels in Crackdown on Oil Trade Shadow Fleet
Sep 11, 2024, 09:45 AM
The UK government has announced new sanctions on 10 vessels identified as part of Russia's 'shadow fleet,' which are used to transport oil and circumvent Western embargoes. The sanctions target ships that employ illicit practices to avoid existing restrictions. Additionally, 17 Russian vessels, including those transporting military supplies, are also sanctioned. The British Foreign Office emphasized that these measures aim to disrupt a vital source of revenue for Russia, impacting its ability to fund military activities. UK Foreign Minister David Lammy stated that the sanctions are intended to further undermine Russia’s oil trade capabilities. The targeted ships are described as 'high-volume offenders.'
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Decrease by more than 10% • 25%
Decrease by 5-10% • 25%
Decrease by less than 5% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased use of 'dark fleet' • 25%
New trade partners • 25%
Price adjustments • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase by more than 10% • 25%
Increase by 5-10% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase significantly (above $80 per barrel) • 25%
Increase moderately ($70-$80 per barrel) • 25%
Remain stable ($65-$70 per barrel) • 25%
Decrease (below $65 per barrel) • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%