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    Will Russian forces fully withdraw from Hmeimim Air Base by June 30, 2025?

    3
    Resolution / Starting Odds

    Yes • 50%

    No • 50%

    Satellite imagery and reports from credible defense analysis sources

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    Russia in Talks with HTS to Keep Syrian Bases as Forces Withdraw

    Russia in Talks with HTS to Keep Syrian Bases as Forces Withdraw

    Dec 13, 2024, 11:16 AM

    Russia is reportedly in negotiations with Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to maintain its military bases in Syria following the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov confirmed that talks with HTS are progressing constructively, according to Interfax. Reports indicate that Russian forces are withdrawing from various positions in Syria, including the east of the Euphrates River and territories controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, and redeploying to the Hmeimim Air Base in Latakia and the naval base in Tartus. Large convoys of Russian military vehicles, consisting of over 150 vehicles, have been observed moving towards these bases from Damascus and eastern Syria. Satellite images and ground footage suggest that Russia is preparing to withdraw its S-400 air defense system from Hmeimim Air Base, with the 91N6E radar packed for loading. Military analysts in the German Defense Ministry assess that Russian forces in Tartus and Khmeimim are preparing for a complete withdrawal, with security guarantees limited to their peaceful exit.

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