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Will Romania experience significant political unrest leading to a change in government by end of 2024?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies and Romanian government statements
Story
Romania's PSD Leads with 26% as Far-Right AUR and Călin Georgescu Gain Ground
Dec 1, 2024, 07:02 PM
Romania held parliamentary elections amid political turmoil, with the ruling Social Democrat Party (PSD) leading with 26% of the vote according to exit polls. The far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), led by Călin Georgescu, made significant gains with approximately 18-20% of the vote, raising concerns about a possible shift in Romania's pro-European Union and NATO stance. Voter turnout was high at 52.45%, surpassing previous elections. Allegations of election interference and the possible annulment of the presidential election results have contributed to unrest, including protests in Bucharest. Observers worry about Russia's potential influence on Romania's political landscape.
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Calin Georgescu wins • 25%
Election results annulled again • 25%
No election held • 25%
Other candidate wins • 25%
Georgescu disqualified • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
New election held • 25%
Original results upheld • 25%
Election indefinitely postponed • 25%
Călin Georgescu wins • 25%
Another candidate wins • 25%
Election annulled again • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
PSD wins majority • 25%
PNL wins majority • 25%
Hungarian Democratic Union wins majority • 25%
No single party wins majority • 25%
Hungarian minority party (UDMR) • 25%
Far-right parties • 25%
National Liberal Party (PNL) • 25%
Social Democratic Party (PSD) • 25%
Decreased instability • 25%
Other impact • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
Forms minority government • 25%
Fails to form government • 25%
Successfully forms government • 25%
Other outcome • 25%