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Will Republican members face primary challenges for supporting a spending bill without debt ceiling measures by the 2026 midterms?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official candidate filings and announcements from major news outlets
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Trump Says Johnson Will 'Easily Remain Speaker' in Next Congress If He Acts Tough on Spending Bill
Dec 19, 2024, 02:16 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has stated that House Speaker Mike Johnson will 'easily remain speaker' in the next Congress if he acts 'decisively and tough' on the current spending bill. Trump emphasized the need for Johnson to eliminate 'all of the traps being set by Democrats' within the legislation, warning that failure to do so could economically harm the country. This comes after a bipartisan deal to avoid a partial government shutdown was abandoned, following criticism from Trump and other conservative figures. The proposed spending bill, which was set to extend government funding until March 14, 2025, included over $100 billion in disaster aid, $10 billion for farmers, and a pay raise for members of Congress. Trump has suggested that any Republican supporting a bill that does not address the debt ceiling should face a primary challenge.
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Senators • 25%
House Representatives • 25%
Both Senators and House Representatives • 25%
None • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Republican Senators • 25%
Democratic Senators • 25%
Republican Representatives • 25%
Democratic Representatives • 25%
Support Johnson's bill • 25%
Oppose Johnson's bill • 25%
Propose alternative bill • 25%
Remain neutral • 25%
Less than 10 • 25%
10 to 20 • 25%
More than 20 • 25%
Bill not brought to vote • 25%
Debt ceiling raised with reforms • 25%
Debt ceiling raised without reforms • 25%
Debt ceiling not raised • 25%
Debt ceiling suspended • 25%