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Market
Will Reform UK gain significant influence in the UK Parliament in the next general election?
2
Elon Musk•Keir Starmer•UK•Financial Times•Musk•US•Donald Trump•UK Labour government•British politics•Reform UK•Starmer•Nigel Farage•Rupert Lowe
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Election results published by the UK Electoral Commission or credible media outlets.
Story
Elon Musk Explores Ways to Oust UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Supports Reform UK
Jan 9, 2025, 10:55 AM
Elon Musk has privately discussed with allies how to remove Sir Keir Starmer as the UK prime minister before the next general election, according to reports from the Financial Times. Musk, the world's richest man and a close confidant of US President-elect Donald Trump, is exploring ways to destabilize the UK Labour government beyond his critical posts on social media. His interest in British politics has intensified over the past six months, with Musk seeking to support alternative political movements, notably the right-wing populist Reform UK party, to force a change in leadership. Musk's criticisms of Starmer have included accusations of complicity in the grooming gangs scandal, a topic that has recently garnered significant attention. Musk has also distanced himself from Nigel Farage, suggesting that Reform UK needs a new leader and exploring potential candidates like Rupert Lowe to replace him.
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Remains a minor party • 25%
Win Majority • 25%
Becomes official opposition • 25%
Wins minority • 25%
Wins majority • 25%
Win Minority • 25%
No Seats • 25%
Some Seats • 25%
No change in seats • 25%
No seats won • 25%
Increase in seats • 25%
Decrease in seats • 25%
Alliance with Conservative Party • 25%
No major alliance • 25%
Alliance with another UK party • 25%
Alliance with Liberal Democrats • 25%
Other • 25%
Rishi Sunak • 25%
Boris Johnson • 25%
Suella Braverman • 25%
New leader from within Reform UK • 25%
Nigel Farage remains leader • 25%
New leader from outside Reform UK • 25%
Other leadership change • 25%
Nigel Farage • 25%
Another individual • 25%
Rupert Lowe • 25%
No change • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Decrease in seats • 25%
Major increase in seats • 25%
Minor increase in seats • 25%
No change • 25%