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Market
Will Qualcomm secure a new architectural license with Arm by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from Qualcomm or Arm, or reputable financial news outlets
Story
Arm Gives Qualcomm 60-Day Notice to Cancel Architectural License Amid Nuvia Dispute
Oct 23, 2024, 02:06 AM
Arm Holdings is canceling an architectural license agreement that allowed longtime partner Qualcomm Inc. to use its intellectual property to design chips, escalating a legal dispute that began when Arm sued Qualcomm in 2022 over the Nuvia acquisition. Arm has given Qualcomm a 60-day notice of cancellation, threatening to disrupt the smartphone and PC markets—including AI PCs—as Qualcomm sells hundreds of millions of processors each year. The move could have significant ramifications for devices relying on Qualcomm's chips, such as those powered by the custom Oryon CPU. Following the news, Qualcomm's shares fell 4.8% in premarket trading.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Settlement reached • 33%
No agreement, case retried • 33%
Case dropped by Arm • 34%
Arm wins the lawsuit • 25%
Qualcomm wins the lawsuit • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Ongoing litigation • 25%
Settlement reached • 25%
Court ruling in favor of Arm • 25%
Court ruling in favor of Qualcomm • 25%
Ongoing litigation • 25%
License restored • 25%
Alternative license secured • 25%
Legal proceedings initiated • 25%
No resolution achieved • 25%
