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Market
Will President-elect Trump directly negotiate for the release of hostages by January 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Statements from the Trump transition team or credible news reports
Story
Hamas Releases Propaganda Video of American Hostage Edan Alexander After Over 420 Days
Nov 30, 2024, 03:31 PM
Hamas has released a propaganda video featuring Edan Alexander, a 20-year-old dual Israeli-American citizen, who has been held hostage in Gaza for over 420 days. The video, which is the first proof of life from Alexander in months, shows him appealing to President-elect Trump to negotiate a hostage deal for his release. Alexander, who was kidnapped during the October 7th attack in Israel, has called for immediate action to bring him and other hostages home, highlighting the dire conditions of their captivity. The release of this video has sparked calls for renewed efforts to secure the release of all hostages, including the seven American citizens still held by Iran-backed Hamas, which has been accused of psychological warfare.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Hostages released • 25%
Deal brokered but hostages not released • 25%
No deal or release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Military action • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No action • 25%