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Will Polymarket adjust Trump's odds below 50% before the 2024 election?
2
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Polymarket's official website and odds tracking data
Story
French Trader's $45M Bets Drive Trump's Odds to Record 65.8% on Polymarket
Oct 25, 2024, 10:19 PM
A French trader has placed substantial bets totaling over $45 million on former President Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election, according to reports. The trader used four accounts on the crypto-based prediction market Polymarket to avoid price surges and has been identified by the platform as the driver behind significant wagers favoring Trump. This influx of large bets has caused Trump's odds on Polymarket to spike, reaching a record high of 65.8%, and briefly soaring to 99% due to low liquidity and massive slippage. Trump now leads Vice President Kamala Harris by over 29% in betting markets, with some sources citing a 31.6% lead. He is also leading in all key swing states according to Polymarket data. The heavy betting activity has caused Trump's odds to expand to the largest ever recorded on the platform. While traditional polls remain close, the situation highlights the impact a single trader can have on prediction markets and raises questions about the reliability of betting odds in forecasting election outcomes.
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